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Summary

Takeaways

  • Markets are increasingly pricing geopolitical risk premiums into crude, with the Strait of Hormuz disruption amplifying fears of tighter global supply and prolonged inflation pressure. 
  • Safe-haven demand strengthened across gold and defensive currencies after Trump dismissed peace-talk speculation, signaling deteriorating risk sentiment across global markets. 
  • Elevated oil prices could complicate the global rate-cut narrative, with traders reassessing central bank expectations amid renewed energy-driven inflation risks.

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Global Markets
Markets

Mon, May 11

3 min

Oil markets remain on edge as U.S.-Iran peace talks remain stalled

Oil markets remain on edge as U.S.-Iran peace talks remain stalled

Oil touches $100 per barrel 


Global markets, now fully well-adjusted to the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz, may continue to price in negotiations. U.S. president Donald Trump’s hardline stance is keeping oil prices well above the $100 mark. Brent traded upwards to $104 per barrel. 

  • WTI crude: $97.6 (+2.28%)
  • Brent crude: $103.9 (+2.61%)
  • Murban crude: $101 (+2.2%)

Despite the resistance, the U.S. dollar is keeping a strong position in the forex market, gaining ahead of mainly Asian currencies such as the Japanese Yen (+0.18%), the Singapore dollar (0.23%), and the Hong Kong Dollar (0.01%). 

Apart from the U.S. dollar, the top-performing forex pairs today were:

  • AUD/TRY 
  • ZAR/JPY
  • EUR/TRY

Optimism continues in tech sector 


The tech sector in the S&P500 continues to represent strong growth as the market awaits earnings reports from NVIDIA, CISCO, and Applied Materials. Here were the most active tech stocks:

  • INTC: 13.91%
  • NVIDIA: 1.77%
  • IREN: 7.65%
  • Tesla: 4.02%
  • AMD: 11.44%

Sector-based ETFs also confirmed the same trend of growth with the following being the biggest gainers:

  • Tech ETFs: +3.44%
  • Semiconductor ETFs: +5.67%

While U.S. markets are yet to open, the strong gains reported on Friday coupled with bullish sentiment on AI and tech stocks suggest the market could be seeing some more gains on Monday even though the deadlock continues. 

Value-focused ETFs continue to hold sway in current market conditions, suggesting that investors are going to be looking for bargains in the stock market. 


Stock indexes mixed as investors assess risk sentiment


Global stock markets delivered a mixed performance during the latest trading session, with U.S. equities leading gains while Asian and European markets traded more cautiously amid ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.

The S&P 500 outperformed major global indexes, rising 0.84% (+61.82 points) to close at 7,398.93, supported by strength in technology and growth-oriented sectors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a marginal gain of 0.02% (+12.19 points) to finish at 49,609.16, reflecting a more defensive tone among blue-chip stocks.

In Europe, Germany’s DAX Index slipped 0.13% (-31.82 points) to 24,306.81, as investors remained cautious over inflation risks and elevated energy prices. Meanwhile, the UK’s FTSE 100 edged higher by 0.13% (+12.89 points) to 10,245.96, supported partly by gains in commodity-linked shares.

Asian markets showed mixed momentum. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.49% (-42.59 points) to 8,701.76, pressured by weakness in broader risk sentiment and concerns surrounding global growth. In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index managed a modest gain of 0.05% (+13.13 points) to close at 26,406.84, as traders balanced stimulus expectations against geopolitical uncertainty.

Overall, market sentiment remains highly sensitive to developments surrounding global trade routes, energy supply risks, and central bank expectations. Traders are likely to remain focused on inflation signals, oil price volatility, and geopolitical headlines heading into the next session.


Final Outlook


A robust tech sector, rising dollar, and soaring oil indexes indicate that while the market is bullish across major asset classes, a huge portion of it comes from macro-economic volatility. Investors are maintaining their optimistic outlook on big tech but also could be waiting for a decisive close to the Strait of Hormuz block.

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