Oil markets register 5% drop after U.S. officials hint at U.S.-Iran peace deal 

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Global markets registered cautious gains after U.S. officials indicated on Sunday that the U.S. and Iran conflict could come to an end with a peace deal still in negotiation. According to Bloomberg, certain bits and pieces still remain for final negotiation such as Iran’s nuclear capabilities. 

However, the optimism has not yet rolled over to U.S. stocks which remain closed. Still, certain indicators remain damped such as U.S. dollar, which lost value to all of its common pair currencies on M onday. Bloomberg data showed the U.S. dollar lose ground to the following currencies: 

• USD/CHF: -0.40%
• USD/KRW: -0.36%
• USD/JPY: -0.16%
• EUR/CHF -0.08%
• USD/CAD: -0.06%
• USD/HKD: -0.01%

Unclear resolutions around the state of negotiations have kept stocks stifled with most indexes from Asia and Europe up by less than 1%, exceptions being India’s NIFTY50 and Japan’s Nikkei. 

Asian and European stock indexes were up across the following, according to CNBC data: 

• FTSE: +0.22%
• ASX200: +0.40%
• NIKKEI: +2.87%
• NIFTY50: +1.05%
• HSI: +0.86%
• SHANGHAI: +0.80%

(Upon second check of prices, more indices opened up for trading with a stronger rally noted across all benchmarks)

While a clear resolution is still not in sight, oil prices are cooling from multi-month highs, with the WTI crude and the Brent crude were down by 5.54% and 5.16% respectively below the $100 mark.

Last week’s movement across stock indexes was more of a seesaw between fear of additional geo-political risk and anticipation of AI-driven gains in the tech sector. On Friday, sector-ETFs showed that virtually all industries grew except for communication services, biotechnology, and REITs. 

Summary

In the author’s view, a sluggish dollar and rising equities in Asia and Europe indicate markets could be moving on their own, pricing any update from the U.S.-Iran conflict but with caution. Additionally, the author observes that a prolonged news cycle has created a set pattern in which markets move but not by the drastic proportions they used to at the beginning of the conflict.

Research references

• Trump's Latest on Iran: Won't Rush Into a Deal - Bloomberg (Accessed May 25, 2026)
• Emerging-Market Assets Rise as Oil Drops on US-Iran Deal Hopes - Bloomberg (Accessed May 25, 2026)
• Data from Bloomberg (Accessed May 25, 2026)
• Data from TIKR (Accessed May 25, 2026)
• Data from oilprice.com (Accessed May 25, 2026)

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