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Summary


  • Oil Market Uncertainty Driving Asian Equity Weakness: U.S.-Iran negotiations remain unresolved, raising shipping risks through the Strait of Hormuz and pushing Brent, WTI, and Murban crude sharply higher. Asian indices are pricing in this instability, with Nikkei and Shanghai leading declines.
  • Nikkei 225 Under Compounded Pressure: The Nikkei slid 1.92%, weighed down by persistent inflation and a cautious Bank of Japan holding rates at 1%. Japanese businesses tend to absorb cost increases internally, meaning the pressure may not yet be visible at the consumer level but is reflected in equity sentiment.
  • Mixed Signals Across Global Markets: U.S. equities closed Friday with modest gains, supported by optimistic but sector-concentrated earnings guidance from S&P 500 companies. SK Hynix saw an 8.2% drop following profit-booking post-ADR listing. Gold held near $4,000, pointing to continued cautious positioning among investors.

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Markets
Global Markets

Mon, Jul 13

3 min

SGFX research desk

Nikkei 225 slides by more than 2% amid oil market volatility


Risk Warning: The information in this article is provided for general informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a personal recommendation, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, financial instrument, or product. Investing in equities, indices, ETFs, commodities and other financial instruments involves a significant risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Cryptocurrencies and digital assets are highly volatile, may be unregulated in some jurisdictions, and can lose value rapidly and without warning. Foreign exchange trading involves significant risk, including currency volatility and potential loss of capital.

Asian stock indices have gone through a downturn in early trading as markets reflect instability from oil markets, according to CNBC data. 

Oil prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, and Murban all inched towards the $80 mark on Monday as the U.S. and Iran navigate an uncertain negotiation process. 

The Strait of Hormuz is now a contested route because of the conflict, and while it is not completely closed, shipping risks for vessels have gone up. 

  • WTI Crude: $74.64 (+4.52%)
  • Brent Crude: $79.38 (+4.43%)
  • Murban Crude: $74.65 (+5.19%)

American stock indexes posted muted gains on Friday. However, earnings guidance has been shown to be optimistic and concentrated in certain sectors. (Source: Bloomberg)

After its ADR listing, SK Hynix stock in South Korea underwent liquidations due to investors booking profits (Source: Reuters), which led to a dip in share price of 8.2%. 

At the time of writing, Asian indexes were trading at the following levels: Asian Indices

  • ASX 200: +0.03%
  • Nikkei: -1.92%
  • Nifty 50: -0.11%
  • HSI: -0.03%
  • Shanghai: -2.12%

Gold traded closer to $4,000 levels, reflecting a continuation of a more stable pricing pattern over the past week. 

The Nikkei 225 took the largest hit and has been subject to considerable volatility due to inflation over the past month and a relatively slow monetary stance when it comes to curbing rising prices. The Japanese benchmark interest rate is currently 1%

In the view of the SGFX research desk, these prices don't trickle down to the consumer side and may not be apparent in Japan's consumer economy, as Japanese businesses often absorb unexpected increases in costs.

Borrowing yields have increased across Western economies such as U.S., Germany, U.K., and France.


Summary


American indexes are yet to open, but Asian stocks are pricing in all the signals carried from world events, including the unclear state of negotiations between U.S. and Iran which is creating volatility across oil markets. Earnings from companies in S&P500 are providing positive signals for growth in equities.


Research references


Disclaimer: This article reflects the views and analysis of the author at the time of publication and is based on information believed to be reliable from publicly available sources. Spectra Global makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information containedherein, and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on it. Spectra Global is licensed by the UAE Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA) under Category 5 (Promotion). Nothing in this article should be construed as a personal recommendation or as an inducement to enter into any transaction. Past performance is not indicative of future results. SpectraGlobal has no commercial relationship with any company referenced in this article. 

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